The Bottom Line The rally in stocks continued during the 3rd quarter, as the market tacked on another 4.5%, bringing the gain in the S&P 500 to 14.2% so far this year. While generally favorable economic fundamentals have been the engine behind these returns, there have been many issues that would be logical candidates for [...]
The Bottom Line During the first quarter, the equity market extended its gains from last year, with the Dow and S&P 500 up in the 5-6% range. The bond market has treaded water after yields ratcheted up at the end of last year. Our views for the equity market are still positive as the fundamentals [...]
The Bottom Line The equity market continues to grind out further gains, advancing a little over 3% during the second quarter, leaving it around 9% as of the end of June. Bond yields also declined slightly during the quarter, but have moved sharply higher over the last week or so, leaving them very close to [...]
Overview 2016 was a good year to be invested in stocks - although it did not look that way on Feb. 11, when the S&P 500 was already down 11% for the year. Another reminder that investor sentiment can change quickly! To the surprise of many, the election of Donald Trump was greeted with cheers [...]
Overview Since the beginning of 2012, we have maintained a positive view for the equity market. In our view, the economy has been “good enough” to generate modest earnings growth. In a low interest rate environment, with an accommodative Fed, we felt this should result in a good market environment for investors, which it most [...]
In our Q1 Market Outlook we outlined a detailed thesis for periods of potential weakness in the markets which ultimately should remain locked in a trading range for some period of time. The first quarter certainly delivered that exact environment. Almost immediately at the start of the year the market plunged on the heels of [...]
Since early 2012 our views for the equity market and US economy have been largely positive. Our economic outlook has consistently been that while the recovery has been underwhelming, it has been “good enough”. We have highlighted that the Fed has been our friend with a very accommodative monetary policy. Additionally, after the bear market [...]
Given the latest pullback in the market, we wanted to remind investors the importance of staying the course. The S&P 500 has declined about 11% from its closing high earlier this year. Is this abnormal? Should you be concerned? Should you do something different? Capital Research & Management Co. analyzed the U.S. stock market for [...]
Overview At the start of the third quarter the exceptionally low volatility we had experienced all year continued. By mid August we had set a historical record for low volatility going back to 1929. To this point in the year, the range between the highs and lows was as narrow as it had ever been! [...]
Overview The story of 2Q is low volatility. The market has stayed locked in a historically narrow range with little direction to speak of. The market is at new highs, and there are at least a few signs of secular excess in some indicators that are of concern. The lack of volatility and overbought nature [...]