Why did the market go down so much, and why has it rallied so much? The market started the year with upside momentum and the hope that a US China trade deal would help kick start the global economy. The market was up about 10% by February, but the outbreak of Covid-19 quickly derailed the [...]
We want to remind clients why we outline our thoughts on the markets every quarter, and more often when volatility picks up. We believe that following the trends in the market is far more effective than predicting an often-uncertain future. We seldom attempt to “call a high” in the market, as this is usually [...]
Review and Outlook The third quarter ushered in a tremendous amount of volatility as global financial markets reacted as perceptions for whether a trade deal with China was crumbling or not. So far, as we are writing this piece, it has been much ado over nothing as the S&P 500 ended in the black, up [...]
Review and Outlook During the second quarter the market moved modestly higher with a quick pullback in May. Our outlook is for a choppy range in the second half of the year with the bulk of the returns this year having been front loaded. There are many opposing forces the market will have to navigate [...]
Review and Outlook In our January Outlook we noted that “the fundamentals did not support a move much worse than this…as the market had become very oversold in December…we saw significantly large breadth in buying…this combination…rarely results in the market doing materially worse”. What resulted was in fact quite a rally, the extent of which [...]
Review and Outlook In our October outlook we warned of more volatility to come. As it turned out, we got even more volatility than we expected. The market declined 13.5% during Q4, putting the S&P 500 at -4.4% for the year. The average stock in the S&P did even worse as the equal weighted [...]
Review and Outlook During the third quarter, the market continued the choppy uptrend that started in April after the broad sell off in February. The first few days of Q4 have ended that, and the uptrend is now in question. The fundamentals for the economy and earnings continue to be positive, against a backdrop of [...]
The Bottom Line During the second quarter, the market staged a choppy rally from the lows it set on April 2. However, underneath the hood, there were large differences in performance. US Small Cap and more aggressive sectors had larger gains, while more conservative sectors like industrials, financials, and consumer staples were negative. International [...]
The Bottom Line The first quarter ushered in volatility which we haven’t seen in several years. After a strong 7% rally in early January the market declined almost 12% in only 10 days! Since then the market has been locked in a wildly volatile range. The net result was a mild decline in the [...]
The Bottom Line The market closed out the year with results that surprised even the most ardent bull – up +21.8%. Even more impressive was the complete lack of volatility on the way up. The market did not have any meaningful pullbacks – we only had a couple of -2% pullbacks. It’s been pretty [...]