Overview As we start the second quarter of the year, our outlook for 2023 is unchanged from our views at the beginning of the year. From our 1Q Outlook: “We believe it is likely that we will see more volatility to both the downside and upside this year. This will make 2023 a more difficult year to navigate the markets…there will be many narratives that will seem probable this year, both bullish and bearish, [...]

Overview Thank you for your trust in us and we appreciate your patience as we navigate through one of the roughest periods on record for both stock and bond markets over the past year. Yale economist Robert Shiller and the Financial Times looked at returns since 1871 and both confirmed that there has never been a year when both stocks and bonds were down double digits, until 2022! The typical 60/40 balanced portfolio was [...]

Overview Against a backdrop of high inflation, rising rates, growing recession concerns and an acrimonious geo-political backdrop, the S&P 500 had its worst start to the year since 1962. The S&P 500 was down -20% through the first half of the year; the official edge of a bear market. This is not a particularly uncommon event and cannot be a surprise given the dramatic rise of the market since the Covid surge 2 years ago. [...]

Overview 2022 is shaping up to be close to what we outlined in our Outlook at the beginning of the year. The economy is returning to pre-covid levels, consumers are returning to travel and services, and corporations are still showing improved earnings. Market volatility has increased as we expected; we saw a -12% decline to begin the year, followed by an +11% rally in about 1 and a half weeks. Over the last 10 [...]

Overview 2022 should be the year of a full global recovery, an end to the pandemic, and a return to normal economic and market conditions that we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. We believe that an improved public health situation should result in a release of pent-up demand from consumers for travel and services, and from corporations for certain inventory and capital expenditures. The market should move higher, but returns are unlikely to match [...]