Market Commentary

Market Commentary2022-05-27T01:07:22+00:00

Market Commentary

2504, 2024

The Pause That Refreshes

April 25th, 2024|

Overview- The equity market continued its ascent during the first quarter, but it is showing signs of needing a pause to refresh. Below are the factors that may give the market a break from its current uptrend. Valuation- While market valuations are expensive, valuation is rarely a harbinger of short-term changes in the market. Expensive valuations generally presage the possibility of muted future long-term returns. We believe it is unlikely that the equity market [...]

3001, 2024

What the Most Important Charts of the Market are Saying to Us

January 30th, 2024|

Overview- The last 2 years have been full of surprises in all markets, and this year may well hold a few more. We wanted to highlight several market factors that help influence the composition and allocation in our portfolios. Below is a brief synopsis of the key factors we evaluate when assessing the health of the market. The chart package that follows illustrates each component. Valuation- After moving higher last year the US equity market [...]

1304, 2023

The Fog of War

April 13th, 2023|

Overview As we start the second quarter of the year, our outlook for 2023 is unchanged from our views at the beginning of the year. From our 1Q Outlook: “We believe it is likely that we will see more volatility to both the downside and upside this year. This will make 2023 a more difficult year to navigate the markets…there will be many narratives that will seem probable this year, both bullish and bearish, [...]

1301, 2023

A Year for the History Books

January 13th, 2023|

Overview Thank you for your trust in us and we appreciate your patience as we navigate through one of the roughest periods on record for both stock and bond markets over the past year. Yale economist Robert Shiller and the Financial Times looked at returns since 1871 and both confirmed that there has never been a year when both stocks and bonds were down double digits, until 2022! The typical 60/40 balanced portfolio was [...]

2607, 2022

Will the Bear Market Continue?

July 26th, 2022|

Overview Against a backdrop of high inflation, rising rates, growing recession concerns and an acrimonious geo-political backdrop, the S&P 500 had its worst start to the year since 1962. The S&P 500 was down -20% through the first half of the year; the official edge of a bear market. This is not a particularly uncommon event and cannot be a surprise given the dramatic rise of the market since the Covid surge 2 years ago. [...]

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