Market Commentary2022-05-27T01:07:22+00:00

Market Commentary

2804, 2022

The Return of Volatility

April 28th, 2022|

Overview 2022 is shaping up to be close to what we outlined in our Outlook at the beginning of the year. The economy is returning to pre-covid levels, consumers are returning to travel and services, and corporations are still showing improved earnings. Market volatility has increased as we expected; we saw a -12% decline to begin the year, followed by an +11% rally in about 1 and a half weeks. Over the last 10 [...]

3101, 2022

Looking Forward

January 31st, 2022|

Overview 2022 should be the year of a full global recovery, an end to the pandemic, and a return to normal economic and market conditions that we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. We believe that an improved public health situation should result in a release of pent-up demand from consumers for travel and services, and from corporations for certain inventory and capital expenditures. The market should move higher, but returns are unlikely to match [...]

2707, 2021

The Battle is On

July 27th, 2021|

A battle between The Fed, Sentiment and Valuation One of the most important drivers, if not the pre-eminent force, propelling asset prices since the Great Financial Crisis has been Central Bank Policy, both here and abroad. The below chart outlines this notion quite dramatically. If current fiscal and monetary policies continue the path they have followed since March of last year, it’s hard to see a bear market evolving. However, we are seeing growing evidence [...]

2204, 2021

Politics Take a Back Seat

April 22nd, 2021|

The most important change in Fed Policy four decades In his press conference during March, Chairman Powell emphasized that monetary stimulus will remain until the labor market has achieved maximum employment and inflation is above their 2% target, for some period of time. Since Volcker broke the back of runaway inflation in the early 80’s by raising rates to 20%, the Fed has engaged in pre-emptive rate hikes based on their economic forecasts. Put simply, [...]

2809, 2020

But Not This Year!

September 28th, 2020|

How has the market done this year? An easy question one would think. And often, it is quite easy, but not this year. Below is a table of different market indices with performance up to but not including the big dive in the market last Thursday. The second index from the top with the yellow dot to the left is what most people think of as “the market” – it is the S&P 500. [...]

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