Market Commentary

/Market Commentary

Why Has the Market Been So Volatile?

Why did the market go down so much, and why has it rallied so much? The market started the year with upside momentum and the hope that a US China trade deal would help kick start the global economy. The market was up about 10% by February, but the outbreak of Covid-19 quickly derailed the upside momentum and changed the way we look at our world, probably a few times in different directions. From the [...]

June 22nd, 2020|

Why do we write this Market Outlook, and how can you use it?

We want to remind clients why we outline our thoughts on the markets every quarter, and more often when volatility picks up. We believe that following the trends in the market is far more effective than predicting an often-uncertain future. We seldom attempt to “call a high” in the market, as this is usually a fool’s game that causes more harm than good in portfolios. Accordingly, if the market is in an uptrend you [...]

February 13th, 2020|

The Trading Range in the Market Continues. How Long Before the Next Big Move?

Review and Outlook The third quarter ushered in a tremendous amount of volatility as global financial markets reacted as perceptions for whether a trade deal with China was crumbling or not. So far, as we are writing this piece, it has been much ado over nothing as the S&P 500 ended in the black, up +1.9% for the quarter. Returns year to date through the third quarter range from around 10% for International stocks, 13% [...]

October 15th, 2019|

Will the Bull Market Continue?

Review and Outlook During the second quarter the market moved modestly higher with a quick pullback in May. Our outlook is for a choppy range in the second half of the year with the bulk of the returns this year having been front loaded. There are many opposing forces the market will have to navigate over the second half of the year. This is now the oldest economic cycle in history at 121 months old [...]

July 16th, 2019|

The Bulls and Bears do Battle

Review and Outlook In our January Outlook we noted that “the fundamentals did not support a move much worse than this…as the market had become very oversold in December…we saw significantly large breadth in buying…this combination…rarely results in the market doing materially worse”. What resulted was in fact quite a rally, the extent of which has surprised most pundits. The S&P 500 was up 13.6% during the quarter and we are close to retesting the [...]

April 15th, 2019|