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The Pause That Refreshes

Overview- The equity market continued its ascent during the first quarter, but it is showing signs of needing a pause to refresh. Below are the factors that may give the market a break from its current uptrend. Valuation- While market valuations are expensive, valuation is rarely a harbinger of short-term changes in the market. [...]

By |2024-05-03T14:10:54+00:00April 25th, 2024|Market Commentary|0 Comments

Will the Oversold Rally in Equities Continue?

Overview The 3rd Quarter ended with a pullback in US equity markets as interest rates continued their march higher. U.S. 10-year yields are at 16-year highs, and we do not believe the process is over. We see investors demanding more compensation for bond risk and we are still underweighting long-duration assets. We have [...]

By |2023-12-21T16:16:28+00:00October 25th, 2023|Uncategorized|0 Comments

Can the FED Achieve the Rare Soft Landing?

OverviewThe U.S. equity market has rallied further this year than we expected, and more than most professional procrastinators predicted. We started the year with significant fundamental headwinds, which the equity market has ignored - an inverted yield curve, a banking crisis resulting in tighter lending standards, slowing earnings and a continuation of the Ukrainian [...]

By |2023-12-21T16:17:07+00:00July 20th, 2023|Uncategorized|0 Comments

The Fog of War

Overview As we start the second quarter of the year, our outlook for 2023 is unchanged from our views at the beginning of the year. From our 1Q Outlook: “We believe it is likely that we will see more volatility to both the downside and upside this year. This will make 2023 a more [...]

By |2023-05-11T17:57:16+00:00April 13th, 2023|Market Commentary|0 Comments

A Year for the History Books

Overview Thank you for your trust in us and we appreciate your patience as we navigate through one of the roughest periods on record for both stock and bond markets over the past year. Yale economist Robert Shiller and the Financial Times looked at returns since 1871 and both confirmed that there has never [...]

By |2023-05-11T17:57:31+00:00January 13th, 2023|Market Commentary|0 Comments

Will the Bear Market Continue?

Overview Against a backdrop of high inflation, rising rates, growing recession concerns and an acrimonious geo-political backdrop, the S&P 500 had its worst start to the year since 1962. The S&P 500 was down -20% through the first half of the year; the official edge of a bear market. This is not a particularly uncommon [...]

By |2022-07-26T12:37:11+00:00July 26th, 2022|Market Commentary|0 Comments

The Return of Volatility

Overview 2022 is shaping up to be close to what we outlined in our Outlook at the beginning of the year. The economy is returning to pre-covid levels, consumers are returning to travel and services, and corporations are still showing improved earnings. Market volatility has increased as we expected; we saw a -12% decline [...]

By |2022-05-18T15:25:33+00:00April 28th, 2022|Market Commentary|0 Comments

Looking Forward

Overview 2022 should be the year of a full global recovery, an end to the pandemic, and a return to normal economic and market conditions that we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. We believe that an improved public health situation should result in a release of pent-up demand from consumers for travel and services, [...]

By |2022-05-27T01:07:54+00:00January 31st, 2022|Market Commentary|0 Comments

The Battle is On

A battle between The Fed, Sentiment and Valuation One of the most important drivers, if not the pre-eminent force, propelling asset prices since the Great Financial Crisis has been Central Bank Policy, both here and abroad. The below chart outlines this notion quite dramatically. If current fiscal and monetary policies continue the path they have [...]

By |2021-07-27T19:28:36+00:00July 27th, 2021|Market Commentary|0 Comments
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