Overview Since the beginning of 2012, we have maintained a positive view for the equity market. In our view, the economy has been “good enough” to generate modest earnings growth. In a low interest rate environment, with an accommodative Fed, we felt this should result in a good market environment for investors, which it most [...]
In our Q1 Market Outlook we outlined a detailed thesis for periods of potential weakness in the markets which ultimately should remain locked in a trading range for some period of time. The first quarter certainly delivered that exact environment. Almost immediately at the start of the year the market plunged on the heels of [...]
Since early 2012 our views for the equity market and US economy have been largely positive. Our economic outlook has consistently been that while the recovery has been underwhelming, it has been “good enough”. We have highlighted that the Fed has been our friend with a very accommodative monetary policy. Additionally, after the bear market [...]
Given the latest pullback in the market, we wanted to remind investors the importance of staying the course. The S&P 500 has declined about 11% from its closing high earlier this year. Is this abnormal? Should you be concerned? Should you do something different? Capital Research & Management Co. analyzed the U.S. stock market for [...]
Overview At the start of the third quarter the exceptionally low volatility we had experienced all year continued. By mid August we had set a historical record for low volatility going back to 1929. To this point in the year, the range between the highs and lows was as narrow as it had ever been! [...]
Since the start of the year, the market has been trading in a very narrow range, with multiple crosses over the 50 day moving average, a measure that many market participants use to gauge the intermediate direction of the market. There have been 27 crosses above or below the 50 day moving average since January [...]
Overview The story of 2Q is low volatility. The market has stayed locked in a historically narrow range with little direction to speak of. The market is at new highs, and there are at least a few signs of secular excess in some indicators that are of concern. The lack of volatility and overbought nature [...]
1Q Wrap-Up In our 2014 year end review, our view for 2015 was that it would probably be a decent year with average returns bit increased volatility, so far this seems to be as predicted. The S&P 500 was up + 1.0% YTD but the up and down volatility has been higher than normal. The [...]
Looking Back on 2014 – an average year in some respects, decidedly not in others 2014 turned out to be fairly close to being an “average” year. The S&P 500 was up 13.7% and the Dow Jones Industrials were up 10.0% - a touch higher than the long term averages. This was largely our outlook [...]