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What Happened to the Quiet Market?

Overview At the start of the third quarter the exceptionally low volatility we had experienced all year continued. By mid August we had set a historical record for low volatility going back to 1929. To this point in the year, the range between the highs and lows was as narrow as it had ever been! [...]

By | September 23rd, 2015|Market Commentary|0 Comments

How Choppy is the Market?

Since the start of the year, the market has been trading in a very narrow range, with multiple crosses over the 50 day moving average, a measure that many market participants use to gauge the intermediate direction of the market. There have been 27 crosses above or below the 50 day moving average since January [...]

By | June 29th, 2015|Market Research|0 Comments

What Does a Directionless Market Mean?

Overview The story of 2Q is low volatility. The market has stayed locked in a historically narrow range with little direction to speak of. The market is at new highs, and there are at least a few signs of secular excess in some indicators that are of concern. The lack of volatility and overbought nature [...]

By | June 12th, 2015|Market Commentary|0 Comments

Is the Economy Slowing?

1Q Wrap-Up In our 2014 year end review, our view for 2015 was that it would probably be a decent year with average returns bit increased volatility, so far this seems to be as predicted. The S&P 500 was up + 1.0% YTD but the up and down volatility has been higher than normal. The [...]

By | April 10th, 2015|Market Commentary|0 Comments

2014: An Average and Abnormal Year

Looking Back on 2014 – an average year in some respects, decidedly not in others 2014 turned out to be fairly close to being an “average” year. The S&P 500 was up 13.7% and the Dow Jones Industrials were up 10.0% - a touch higher than the long term averages. This was largely our outlook [...]

By | January 7th, 2015|Market Research|0 Comments