Overview- The rally in the equity market has built momentum during the third quarter. When we penned our second quarter outlook, the market had barely broken out above the highs of 2024, but the market has now extended about 10% above last year’s high. While the labor market is showing signs of weakening (this [...]
Overview- 2025 has been an exciting year between war, tariffs, inflation, and so on. Regardless of the volatility, the market hasn’t moved too much since last year, so we have reserved judgement until things are a bit clearer. Our expectation is that, barring any further surprises, there is potential for the market to move [...]
Overview- After a sharp post-election rally, the broad equity market pulled back towards the end of the year and finished mixed for the 4Q. The Cap Weighted S&P 500 was up 2.5%, while the Equal Weight S&P declined -1.9%. Mid and Small cap were negative by -1% to -2%, and international was down over [...]
Overview- The market moved higher in Q3, with the S&P 500 up +5.8%. The market rally appears to be broadening with Midcap, SmallCap and Value doing as well as if not slightly better than the S&P 500. This is a marked contrast from the first half of the year, where the top 10 names [...]
Overview- We expected equity markets to pause after they ran higher in Q1. In fact, most of the market did just so: For 2Q Small Cap stocks were -3.1%, Mid-Caps were -3.5%, the Dow Jones Ind Avg was -1.3% and the average stock in the S&P 500 was -2.6%. Remarkably, the Cap Weighted S&P 500 [...]
Overview- The equity market continued its ascent during the first quarter, but it is showing signs of needing a pause to refresh. Below are the factors that may give the market a break from its current uptrend. Valuation- While market valuations are expensive, valuation is rarely a harbinger of short-term changes in the market. [...]
Overview- The last 2 years have been full of surprises in all markets, and this year may well hold a few more. We wanted to highlight several market factors that help influence the composition and allocation in our portfolios. Below is a brief synopsis of the key factors we evaluate when assessing the health of [...]
Overview The 3rd Quarter ended with a pullback in US equity markets as interest rates continued their march higher. U.S. 10-year yields are at 16-year highs, and we do not believe the process is over. We see investors demanding more compensation for bond risk and we are still underweighting long-duration assets. We have [...]
Overview As we start the second quarter of the year, our outlook for 2023 is unchanged from our views at the beginning of the year. From our 1Q Outlook: “We believe it is likely that we will see more volatility to both the downside and upside this year. This will make 2023 a more [...]
Overview Thank you for your trust in us and we appreciate your patience as we navigate through one of the roughest periods on record for both stock and bond markets over the past year. Yale economist Robert Shiller and the Financial Times looked at returns since 1871 and both confirmed that there has never [...]