Review and Outlook In our January Outlook we noted that “the fundamentals did not support a move much worse than this…as the market had become very oversold in December…we saw significantly large breadth in buying…this combination…rarely results in the market doing materially worse”. What resulted was in fact quite a rally, the extent of which [...]
Review and Outlook In our October outlook we warned of more volatility to come. As it turned out, we got even more volatility than we expected. The market declined 13.5% during Q4, putting the S&P 500 at -4.4% for the year. The average stock in the S&P did even worse as the equal weighted [...]
Review and Outlook During the third quarter, the market continued the choppy uptrend that started in April after the broad sell off in February. The first few days of Q4 have ended that, and the uptrend is now in question. The fundamentals for the economy and earnings continue to be positive, against a backdrop of [...]
The Bottom Line During the second quarter, the market staged a choppy rally from the lows it set on April 2. However, underneath the hood, there were large differences in performance. US Small Cap and more aggressive sectors had larger gains, while more conservative sectors like industrials, financials, and consumer staples were negative. International [...]
The Bottom Line The first quarter ushered in volatility which we haven’t seen in several years. After a strong 7% rally in early January the market declined almost 12% in only 10 days! Since then the market has been locked in a wildly volatile range. The net result was a mild decline in the [...]
The Bottom Line The market closed out the year with results that surprised even the most ardent bull – up +21.8%. Even more impressive was the complete lack of volatility on the way up. The market did not have any meaningful pullbacks – we only had a couple of -2% pullbacks. It’s been pretty [...]
The Bottom Line The rally in stocks continued during the 3rd quarter, as the market tacked on another 4.5%, bringing the gain in the S&P 500 to 14.2% so far this year. While generally favorable economic fundamentals have been the engine behind these returns, there have been many issues that would be logical candidates for [...]
The Bottom Line During the first quarter, the equity market extended its gains from last year, with the Dow and S&P 500 up in the 5-6% range. The bond market has treaded water after yields ratcheted up at the end of last year. Our views for the equity market are still positive as the fundamentals [...]
The Bottom Line The equity market continues to grind out further gains, advancing a little over 3% during the second quarter, leaving it around 9% as of the end of June. Bond yields also declined slightly during the quarter, but have moved sharply higher over the last week or so, leaving them very close to [...]
Overview 2016 was a good year to be invested in stocks - although it did not look that way on Feb. 11, when the S&P 500 was already down 11% for the year. Another reminder that investor sentiment can change quickly! To the surprise of many, the election of Donald Trump was greeted with cheers [...]