The Bottom Line The equity market continues to grind out further gains, advancing a little over 3% during the second quarter, leaving it around 9% as of the end of June. Bond yields also declined slightly during the quarter, but have moved sharply higher over the last week or so, leaving them very close to where they started the year. Valuations remain extended, reinforcing our belief that returns over the next 3-5 years will unlikely [...]

Overview 2016 was a good year to be invested in stocks - although it did not look that way on Feb. 11, when the S&P 500 was already down 11% for the year. Another reminder that investor sentiment can change quickly! To the surprise of many, the election of Donald Trump was greeted with cheers from investors, resulting in a strong rally to close out the year. The S&P 500 was up 12% for the [...]

Overview Since the beginning of 2012, we have maintained a positive view for the equity market. In our view, the economy has been “good enough” to generate modest earnings growth. In a low interest rate environment, with an accommodative Fed, we felt this should result in a good market environment for investors, which it most certainly has been. In our October 2014 Market Outlook we noted that it had been three years without a 10% [...]

In our Q1 Market Outlook we outlined a detailed thesis for periods of potential weakness in the markets which ultimately should remain locked in a trading range for some period of time. The first quarter certainly delivered that exact environment. Almost immediately at the start of the year the market plunged on the heels of China devaluing the Yuan and exceptionally weak oil prices, further fanning fears of solvency issues with banks and a weakening [...]

Since early 2012 our views for the equity market and US economy have been largely positive. Our economic outlook has consistently been that while the recovery has been underwhelming, it has been “good enough”. We have highlighted that the Fed has been our friend with a very accommodative monetary policy. Additionally, after the bear market of 2008 and the pullbacks in 2010 and 2011, valuations were reasonable if not attractive and many investors remained underinvested [...]