Overview- After a sharp post-election rally, the broad equity market pulled back towards the end of the year and finished mixed for the 4Q. The Cap Weighted S&P 500 was up 2.5%, while the Equal Weight S&P declined -1.9%. Mid and Small cap were negative by -1% to -2%, and international was down over -7% as the rest of the world was mired in concerns over stalling economic growth. For the second year in [...]

Overview- We expected equity markets to pause after they ran higher in Q1. In fact, most of the market did just so: For 2Q Small Cap stocks were -3.1%, Mid-Caps were -3.5%, the Dow Jones Ind Avg was -1.3% and the average stock in the S&P 500 was -2.6%. Remarkably, the Cap Weighted S&P 500 powered higher by another 4.4% in the quarter, with almost all the gains concentrated in the 7 largest tech stocks. [...]

Overview- The equity market continued its ascent during the first quarter, but it is showing signs of needing a pause to refresh. Below are the factors that may give the market a break from its current uptrend. Valuation- While market valuations are expensive, valuation is rarely a harbinger of short-term changes in the market. Expensive valuations generally presage the possibility of muted future long-term returns. We believe it is unlikely that the equity market [...]

Overview- The last 2 years have been full of surprises in all markets, and this year may well hold a few more. We wanted to highlight several market factors that help influence the composition and allocation in our portfolios. Below is a brief synopsis of the key factors we evaluate when assessing the health of the market. The chart package that follows illustrates each component. Valuation- After moving higher last year the US equity market [...]

Overview As we start the second quarter of the year, our outlook for 2023 is unchanged from our views at the beginning of the year. From our 1Q Outlook: “We believe it is likely that we will see more volatility to both the downside and upside this year. This will make 2023 a more difficult year to navigate the markets…there will be many narratives that will seem probable this year, both bullish and bearish, [...]